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Dear BOM, Why Is It 26 Degrees in May?

  • Writer: Josephine Mann
    Josephine Mann
  • May 13
  • 3 min read

“Craig is protesting climate change by wearing an outfit that should be appropriate for this time of year.”
“Craig is protesting climate change by wearing an outfit that should be appropriate for this time of year.”

Source: Conde Nast


“What does BOM say?” That’s the response I get every time I mention the weather. It’s almost as if checking the BOM app is a mandatory ritual. Is it so wrong to sometimes just rely on the simple built-in weather app on my phone? After all, convenience can be worth the slight inaccuracy.


But I’d be remiss not to acknowledge the commendable work of the Bureau of Meteorology, delivering trusted and reliable forecasts to Australians everywhere. I’ll even admit (with no small amount of hubris) that I felt extremely validated last week when, acting on BOM’s advice, I brought an umbrella to university and my sister didn’t. I gloated, of course: “Didn’t you check BOM?”


As an Australian household staple, BOM’s great work is nothing new. What is new, however, is the weather this autumn. And while I would never doubt the Bureau, I find myself increasingly shocked to see, and feel, 26 degrees in May.

So, if BOM isn’t wrong… what is going on?


Let’s start with the data. Victoria’s area-averaged mean temperature this April was 16.89°C, a full 2.37°C above the 1961 to 1990 average. This made it the warmest April recorded in the state since 1910. In other words, this isn’t just unseasonably warm — it’s historically unprecedented.


And it wasn’t just the heat. April also brought an absence of rain, with Victoria’s area-averaged rainfall total falling to just 26.1 mm, 51% below the historical average. The picture across the state was uneven: southern, far western and north-eastern regions recorded rainfall in the lowest 10% of all Aprils since 1900, while the far north-west was at the other extreme, with rainfall levels in the highest 10%. Extremes within extremes, a trend becoming all too familiar.

Overall, it’s probably not surprising to hear that the past ten years, from 2015 to 2024, are the ten warmest years on record globally. So no, Victoria’s unusually warm and dry April wasn’t a one-off. It’s part of a broader, and frankly ominous, climate trajectory.


And 2024, specifically, has been a year for the wrong kind of milestones. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that it was the warmest year on record, and the first calendar year with a global mean temperature more than 1.5°C above the 1850 to 1900 average, the benchmark period for pre-industrial conditions.



So, what is actually being done?


The Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal isn’t quite dead, but it’s definitely in grave danger. According to the latest assessment by Climate Action Tracker, no country is currently on track to meet the 1.5°C target. That said, a few are making commendable efforts.


Norway, for instance, has preserved its climate ambitions in a Climate Act, aiming for a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), and a low-emissions society by 2050. In the transport sector, electrification has taken the front seat. By 2022, over 80% of new passenger cars sold in Norway were electric, a figure that made up 21% of all vehicles on the road. The country’s long-standing commitment to environmental regulation continues, though challenges like urban air pollution remain.


Chile has taken a different but also ambitious path. It has finalised its National Mining Policy 2050, which includes a target for carbon neutrality in the industry sector by 2040. Chile is also betting big on green hydrogen, with a comprehensive Action Plan aiming to turn the country into a top exporter by 2040. The government is trialling domestically produced hydrogen buses and rolling out sectoral strategies like the Decarbonisation Plan and the Roadmap for Electromobility.


These are promising signs – but isolated ones. The uncomfortable reality is that while some countries are pushing ahead, globally we’re still far off course.

And while warm Mays might make for pleasant lunches in University Square, they are also a signal, subtle now but potentially deafening in the future, that our climate is shifting in ways we’re not prepared for. It will be interesting, and crucial, to see how Australia responds in the coming years, and how we as current university students can contribute to that response. With any luck, BOM won’t be forecasting even more extreme records next autumn, though I’ll still be checking, religiously, just in case.


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