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“It's Going Down, I’m Yelling Timber!”: The Cultural Significance of Recession Indicators

  • Writer: Emanuelle Wong
    Emanuelle Wong
  • Aug 12
  • 3 min read
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Everything is a recession indicator. Minimalism, low-rise jeans, and McDonald’s sauce policy. All over the internet, people have been poking fun but also lamenting over the state of global affairs. These concerns are certainly valid, but how do we connect trends on social media to what’s happening in the world?


Tell-tale signs of an impending recession?


Pop culture and everyday essentials have always been used to “forecast” economic downturns, even producing seemingly dubious yet thought-provoking indexes. For example, the “lipstick index” states that lipstick sales rise when the outlook of the economy grows increasingly pessimistic, reflecting the notion that people tend to relish the little luxuries in life over big and costlier purchases such as handbags in times of hardship.


Back in the 1990s, listeners of the legendary rock band Pink Floyd associated album releases with economic challenges. In the words of Dr Richard Scully, a professor of modern history at the University of New England, “ Every time Pink Floyd released an album, up to and including The Dark Side Of The Moon … there had been an economic downturn as a result.” 


More recently, sales of cardboard boxes have also been linked to the state of the economy. Since cardboard boxes are commonly used as packaging when products are shipped and delivered, a fall in demand for cardboard boxes could indicate that firms are experiencing lower sales as well. According to MarketWatch, operating revenues of cardboard-box manufacturers fell by more than 50% during the 2008 recession, indicating gloomy economic prospects, particularly within the e-commerce sector. 


Are these observations useful at all?


Generally described as long and sustained periods of reduced outputs and increasing unemployment rates, recessions are often characterised by falling household spending and business investments. Although the technical definition of a recession is “a fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) over two consecutive quarters”, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States defines a recession as a period of substantial decline in economic activity that lies between a peak and a trough in the business cycle. This is because some components of GDP are volatile and can be revised as more data is collected or measured using different approaches. This prompts the question- do internet memes and satirical humour actually represent useful information, or are they just for laughs? 


Economist John Maynard Keynes, known for his influential Keynesian school of thought and macroeconomic theories, first coined the term “animal spirits” in 1936 which referred to human emotions as driving factors in financial decision-making, especially in times of economic instability or uncertainty. Today, these animal spirits symbolise consumer confidence which may influence the booms and busts in an economy- economic growth may be hindered when spirits are low and pessimism is rife. 


Recent geopolitical events, such as the protectionist trade policy in the USA or the cost-of-living crisis in Australia, have triggered mixed responses and sentiments worldwide. Popular forms of media like memes communicate complex, nuanced emotions and raise awareness about deeper socioeconomic issues, bonding people together and forming communities that span across borders and platforms. Furthermore, they break down fundamental economic concepts into relatable and digestible pieces that are easy to understand. 


What does the future hold?


In a nutshell, although pop culture recession indicators are not necessarily reliable metrics in assessing the state of the economy, they highlight the importance of financial literacy to discern fact from fiction in this age of false news and clickbait titles. But above all else, they demonstrate collective human will and perseverance, even in the face of trying times. And as Paris Hilton would say, “That’s hot.” 


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