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Mystery Shopping: Unboxing the Consumer Behaviour Behind Blind Boxes

  • Writer: Emanuelle Wong
    Emanuelle Wong
  • Jun 3
  • 5 min read


What do Rihanna, Dua Lipa, and Lalisa have in common besides their amazing vocals? Their love for Labubus shared by millions of other people around the world. Take a walk downtown and you’re bound to see at least one of the following- a Smiski keychain, a Labubu bag charm, or a Sonny Angel hipper perched on top of a phone or laptop. Hundreds of devoted shoppers queue eagerly in anticipation of securing the toothy monster with a mischievous smile whenever a Labubu drop is announced. The skyrocketing popularity of these beloved figurines isn’t merely a coincidence or a series of isolated events. It’s a result of the larger blind box economy that cleverly incorporates psychology and behavioural economics which leaves customers wanting more.


The History of Blind Boxes

Although the modern blind box frenzy has only emerged in recent decades, theories of the mystery item marketing tactic date as far back as the Edo Period (1603-1868), where a Tokyo kimono fabric store was said to have sold bundles of leftover fabric at discounted prices to discard excess stock, which proved to be a huge success. This led to the conception of the Fukubukuro (lucky bag)- a Japanese tradition in which department stores would sell mystery sales items during the new year.


Since then, these standalone mystery items have evolved into a wide array of collectibles- from freebies in cereal boxes and McDonald’s Happy Meals to the blind boxes we know and love today. The impact is undeniable- in 2024, toy company Pop Mart recorded revenues of over 13 billion yuan, a surge of 106% from 2023. So what makes this sweeping sensation so appealing?


Certainty vs Uncertainty- A Pleasant Surprise?

By and large, the biggest difference between a blind box and a regular toy is the level of uncertainty that comes with the product. Normally, uncertainty in a product is looked down upon and avoided due to the fear of disappointment (Calvo and Dolores Castillo, 2001). Having a greater understanding of a planned purchase allows customers to make informed and rational decisions, therefore reducing decision-making errors and rates of product returns (Shulman et al., 2015). However, there is evidence to suggest that uncertain rewards are linked to heightened risk-taking instincts and behavioural motivation, as well as enhanced learning ability (Jezzini et al., 2021). This is reinforced by the positive emotion theory, where uncertainty is associated with physiological arousal and a higher likelihood of positive emotions (Loewenstein, 1994). Furthermore, positive experiences tend to increase customer motivation, which is directly correlated with purchase behaviour (Klein and Fishbach, 2014). Hence, the randomness of a blind box may drive demand and consumption should shoppers enjoy the thrill of acquiring a surprise toy. 


Online Presence and the Desire to Fit In  

Apart from the aspect of uncertainty, social media has been a large influence in the booming demand of blind boxes. When prominent celebrities like Blackpink’s Lisa or Bella Hadid are seen sporting a Labubu or a Sonny Angel, fans and even the general public may be inclined to make similar purchases and “hop on the trend”. According to Tajfel and Turner (1979), the social identity craved by human beings can be illustrated in a three-step process: cognition, affection, and evaluation. In the case of blind boxes, cognition and affection would be the individual’s willingness and desire to adopt similar characteristics of a group, which may include following the latest trends or elevating their social status through means of affordable luxury. As costs-of-living climb steadily, young adults forgo large retail purchases in favour of small indulgences such as blind box toys to seek gratification, a phenomenon akin to the “lipstick effect”.


Are the Odds in Your Favour?

A key element in the blind box craze is the impulse to collect full sets of a character series or a ‘secret’ figure. Since probabilities are random, it is unlikely that customers will obtain their preferred characters within the minimum number of purchases. Hence, some shoppers may fall into the trap of the gambler’s fallacy- the belief that independent outcomes of the past will affect the probability of future events- or that the more blind boxes one buys, the more likely they will get their preferred model. The availability heuristic also arises when it's deemed that the chances of receiving limited-edition or secret figurines are high simply due to the plethora of success stories and posts online. While these factors drive the motivation of repeat purchases, it has ignited discussions of more sinister consequences.


In extraordinary cases, when excessive consumerism and perceived scarcity are combined, you have a market fueled by high demand and limited supply. This has become apparent in the Labubu universe, where scalpers sell highly sought-after dolls for hundreds of dollars above their retail price. Moreover, dupes and knockoffs, endearingly named “Lafufus”, have been circulating in the market, gaining traction from consumers who want matching dolls at lower prices. 


What’s next?

Back in 2021, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in Singapore proposed a prize cap of SGD100 on blind boxes in an attempt to curb irrational spending and gambling. Even if similar regulations may not exist in Australia, the questions behind consumer behaviour still stand. Are people innately risk-averse or risk-seeking? And is this trend economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable? Perhaps it's worthwhile to consider whether blind boxes are just another trend or a pursuit of happiness in the little things in life.


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